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New Yorkers will discover who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who runs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has vowed to send military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has become an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought global notice. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has led his rival by double-digits in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

However, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in recent years amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to Trump's power moves, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to voters' frustration at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the party perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, should the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce national Democrats' current model of cautious, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A New York defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate directly. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent elected, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, started his mayoral bid in last year, few had heard of him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced difficulties in the final phase, after footage emerged suggesting him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd