Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
